Do Not Track is dying

Like most browsers, Firefox includes a Do Not Track feature. But until an agreement is reached between advertisers and privacy advocates, the feature will have no effect.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The tantalizing promise of a single button that prevents ads from tracking your online behavior is fizzling fast.

More than nine months after the Obama administration, digital advertisers, browser makers and privacy advocates agreed in principle to create a "Do Not Track" mechanism for Web browsing, the tool is no closer to becoming a reality than it was in February. In fact, the entire plan is on life support.

The various parties have been sitting around a table every Wednesday -- both virtually and, on six occasions, physically -- trying to reach a consensus on how a Do Not Track button would be implemented.

After months of wrangling, the groups still can't even come to an agreement on what "tracking" means and includes. The advertising industry wants to hang on to the current business model of targeted advertising, which tailors ads to users based on their browsing activity. Privacy advocates and lawmakers believe people should easily be able to opt out of that. The one thing all sides agree on is that they are hopelessly deadlocked.

Privacy advocates accuse the advertising industry of unfairly stalling the process.

"The advertisers have been extraordinarily obstructionist, raising the same issues over and over again, forcing new issues that were not on the agenda, adding new issues that have been closed, and launching personal attacks," said Jonathan Mayer, a Stanford privacy researcher and Do Not Track technology developer who is involved in the negotiations.

"We have made, maybe, inches of progress," he said. "This continues to be a stalemate."

On the flip side, the industry claims that privacy supporters are trying to impose overly restrictive changes that could seriously damage the digital advertising business.

"We have a real concern about using a sledgehammer for a flyswatter problem," said Marc Groman, executive director of the National Advertising Initiative, a coalition of online advertisers. "Do Not Track will have a disproportionate effect on our stakeholders."

The World Wide Web Consortium, colloquially known as the W3C, is moderating this increasingly fractious and seemingly endless debate. In an effort to blast through the impasse, the W3C this week hired Peter Swire, an Ohio State University law professor and a former privacy official for the Obama and Clinton administrations, as the working group's new chair.

W3C's Hail Mary hope is that Swire can quickly build consensus. Currently, most major browsers include a Do Not Track button, but without any agreement on how Do Not Track should work, the button doesn't do anything.

An initial plan to have Do Not Track up and running by end of the year is looking impossible.

Part of the problem is the huge number of stakeholders with competing interests. For instance, smaller advertisers argue that Do Not Track favors large players like Google (GOOG, Fortune 500), AOL (AOL) and Yahoo (YHOO, Fortune 500), each of which has a vast content network of its own. Even with Do Not Track turned on, those giants will still be able to track users' behavior on their own sites -- just not across the rest of the Web.

Another wrench in the gears came when Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) opted to turn Do Not Track on by default in its latest version of Internet Explorer. That threw negotiations into a tizzy over which default -- "on" or "off" -- best represents a user's intent. (That's the official line. The disagreement is really over whether the advertising industry is still willing to play along with Do Not Track if the default setting is "on.")

"Why is this taking so long? Because people don't want to budge," said Ian Jacobs, spokesman for the W3C. "It's like a budget deficit committee meeting."

The W3C is determined to break the deadlock, and it believes it has a solution -- albeit an undesirable one.

In the agenda for its latest face-to-face meeting, held last month, the group finally admitted that "many issues cannot be resolved in a way that does not raise any objections." So the W3C plans to start holding votes and letting the majority rule.

"We always seek consensus, but when we can't, we'll get votes and make decisions," Jacobs said. "Saying 'I don't like this' is not going to be considered a strong objection. We're not going to be held hostage when a group can't make progress."

But even the W3C acknowledges that all parties will have to voluntarily agree to honor Do Not Track once the negotiations end. If the final decision isn't unanimous, some advertisers and browsers may choose to simply ignore Do Not Track protocols.

That's why some privacy proponents are advocating for a more nuclear option: ad blocking.

"Do Not Track was supposed to be the olive branch. It was the polite solution," said Stanford's Mayer. "If we don't get an agreement, then we'll just start blocking those guys."

First Published: November 30, 2012: 6:09 AM ET

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Make your charitable giving go further

Not knowing how their money will be spent causes some people to hold back from giving to charities.

(Money Magazine) -- Most of us feel generous in December, the top month for charitable donations, reports the Atlas of Giving. But regardless of when you give, you want to make sure that the funds are actually used to do real good.

"Not knowing how their money will be spent sometimes holds people back from supporting a charity," says Jason Franklin, who teaches nonprofit management and philanthropy at New York University and is executive director of Bolder Giving, a nonprofit focused on helping Americans give more effectively.

Meanwhile, recent news reports that major charities employ telemarketing firms that eat up more than half of funds raised may not have inspired confidence to open up your wallet.

Use this guide to make sure the maximum amount of your donation is going toward a deserving cause.

Sharpen your focus

A 2012 study from the Chronicle of Philanthropy reports that the median amount American households donate to charity each year is $2,564. That's a nice chunk of change, but not if you're divvying it up among dozens of organizations.

"For every gift, there are fixed costs associated with stewarding and tracking it," adds Patrick Rooney, director of the Center on Philanthropy at Indiana University. "So the smaller the gift, the larger the percentage that goes to transaction and administrative costs."

Related: Tighten up your holiday spending

Don't want to limit your donations to one or two organizations all year? Franklin suggests using the 50/20/30 rule: Half your giving should be focused on one charity -- the gift you'll spend the most time thinking about. Then set aside 20% for small impulse gifts and the final 30% for institutions you support on a regular basis, like your alma mater or your church.

Get with the new thinking

For the past decade the conventional wisdom has been to look up your preferred organizations' financials on GuideStar.org or CharityNavigator.org and stick with ones that limit their overhead expenses to less than 20% of their budget.

But expense ratios don't tell the whole story -- some nonprofits have higher administrative costs because of the nature of their work, says Fred Setterberg, co-author of "Giving with Confidence: A Guide to Savvy Philanthropy." (Note: Anything above 25% should still raise a red flag, says Franklin.)

Today, organizations that vet charities are increasingly focused on figuring out which ones are doing the best work to support their mission, says Sean Stannard-Stockton, a Burlingame, Calif., financial adviser who specializes in charitable giving.

Two sites can help you suss that out. MyPhilanthropedia.com (recently acquired by GuideStar) pulls together experts to recommend and evaluate charities in 31 different causes. GreatNonprofits.org offers crowd-sourced reviews of the work charities are doing, as told by volunteers, donors, and beneficiaries -- sort of like the Yelp of the nonprofit world.

Also dig into the organization's website yourself to see how it frames its goals: Specificity is important, says Jacob Harold, who formerly led grantmaking for the Hewlett Foundation and is now the CEO of GuideStar.

Related: 10 steps to making a budget

A charity that says it's going to train 10,000 people in East L.A. and ensure that 4,000 will get jobs between now and the end of 2013 is likely to spend your donation more carefully than one that says it's "going to end poverty."

Pay the old-fashioned way

Credit card and other processing fees can eat up as much as 5% of your donation to a charity -- so when you can, write a check or issue one through your bank's online bill-paying system.

A charity you love phones to ask for money? It's best to say no -- the telemarketing firm will get a cut of what you donate. The exception: Telethons that are run by universities or public broadcasters typically don't eat into the funds raised, but it's still best to send a check directly to the organization.

Once you do, get a receipt to deduct contributions. For donations of $250 or more, you also need a note from the charity stating whether goods or services were provided in exchange for the gift. After all, 'tis better to give and receive.

First Published: November 30, 2012: 6:17 AM ET

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Drones soar past their military uses

Unmanned flying machines aren't just for tracking down bad guys anymore.

(Fortune) -- The word "drone" probably doesn't make you think "fun" or even "useful." After all, the most familiar unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) is the hulking, weaponized, and sinisterly named Predator deployed by the U.S. military. But drones are destined for gentler tasks; they could be making their way into homes as tools and into distressed areas as humanitarian aids. French company Parrot is already selling its high-end toy, the $300 AR.Drone 2.0, to consumers.

Utility

Drone experts imagine do-it-yourselfers tossing a UAV in the back of their trucks alongside their chainsaw and toolbox. UAVs could be used to monitor crops, for example, or by homeowners who want to check rain gutters without climbing on the roof.

Humanitarian

Advanced image processors could scan and identify areas hit by natural disasters, feeding information to relief workers on the ground. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has also promoted research into using UAVs to deliver vaccines to remote populations.

Fun and games

Phone and tablet apps can already pilot drones and allow owners to pit their piloting skills against each other. Cameras embedded into the hulls capture high-definition still photos and videos, getting aerial shots that used to require elaborate equipment.

This story is from the December 3, 2012 issue of Fortune.

First Published: November 30, 2012: 6:26 AM ET

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Why 'cheap' stocks aren't always good

The price you pay matters -- pay attention to stock valuations. Cheap isn't always a good buy.

NEW YORK (Money Magazine) -- Remember in the late '90s when Wall Street was so fixated on earnings growth that highfliers like Cisco Systems were coveted despite price/earnings ratios of 100 or more?

Lesson learned: The price you pay for a stock matters. Alas, the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction.

Case in point: Europe. Most money managers think the Continent, mired in recession thanks to its epic debt crisis, will remain stuck in reverse next year and grow at a subpar 2% long after that. They also fear that profits will continue to deteriorate.

Yet a growing chorus believes that European equities are a steal.

That's because at a P/E ratio of 11, they sell for about 50% of what big U.S. equities fetch, more than twice their usual discount.

"European stocks are so cheap they might go up in response to even a half-baked rescue plan," says Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer for the Leuthold Group.

Unfortunately, while there is a strong relationship between current valuations and future performance, a low P/E isn't a foolproof buy signal.

Related: Why old media stocks are on top today

Take 1973. That year the P/E for the S&P 500 index sank from an above-average 19 -- based on 10 years of averaged earnings -- to a historically cheap 13. Yet over the following decade, blue chips posted mediocre annual gains of 6.7%. Factoring in inflation, equities lost value.

By contrast, in 1991, P/Es climbed back to nearly 19. Yet stocks had real annual gains of 15% for the next decade.

The difference?

For starters, between 1973 and 1982, profits for S&P 500 companies grew about 4% a year, well shy of their long-term 6%. From 1991 to 2000, earnings soared at double the historical pace.

Also, in the '70s the Fed was raising interest rates to fight inflation. In the '90s it was cutting them to jump-start growth.

Fast-forward to today: Europe is cheap, but the U.S. economy and profits are expected to grow much faster than the Continent's.

"Valuation has an inherent inability to be a predictor of market action," says James Stack, president of InvesTech Research.

Yes, P/Es offer a clue about how much stocks might rise or fall, but it's earnings and interest rates, or geopolitics and investor psychology, that change the market's direction. "Over valued markets can keep getting more overvalued, and undervalued ones can keep getting cheaper," says Stack.

Related: Tips for investing in stocks

Robert Arnott, chairman of Research Affiliates, contends that valuation is still "the most important tool" investors have, especially the P/E ratio based on 10 years of averaged earnings.

Yet even the man who popularized this metric, Yale economist Robert Shiller, cautions that it's "not a guarantee. If you look at history," he says, "the market is simply hard to predict."

First Published: November 29, 2012: 6:02 AM ET

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AT&T has best 4G network in Consumer Reports' rankings

AT&T's 4G network is smaller than Verizon's, but its 4G service is the smoothest, according to Consumer Reports.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The overall rankings didn't change, but AT&T scored a surprising coup in the annual Consumer Reports survey of the top cell phone service providers.

AT&T, ranked dead last in the customer satisfaction survey for the third straight year, topped all wireless carriers in the magazine's 4G network ratings.

Verizon (VZ, Fortune 500) has by far the largest 4G-LTE network, serving more than 400 markets, compared to just over 100 for AT&T (T, Fortune 500) and more than 40 for Sprint (S, Fortune 500). But AT&T customers reported the fewest 4G-related problems of any carrier, including service interruptions, slow speeds or lack of service.

Still, Verizon once again topped the charts in the overall rankings of national carriers -- and it's pulling away from the rest of the pack. Verizon outscored Sprint by 6 points in Consumer Reports' customer satisfaction ratings, a gap that widened since last year. T-Mobile came in third, trailed slightly by AT&T, which got worst-in-class rankings for value, voice quality and customer support.

A year ago, Sprint trailed Verizon by just a point in the rankings, but the carrier's satisfaction rating fell by a dramatic six points over the course of the year.

What happened? In its survey, Consumer Reports noted that 4G customers are generally more satisfied than those with 3G service. Sprint's significantly smaller 4G could play a role in its customers' lower ratings.

Though 4G customers are generally happier, faster data connections can lead to higher cell phone bills, Consumer Reports pointed out. Verizon and AT&T both recently introduced shared data plans that encourage higher data usage. The nation's two largest carriers have reported that they are making more money on the new plans as customers ramp up their gigabytes.

For many customers, there are other options. Smaller, regional carriers like Consumer Cellular, U.S. Cellular (USM), and Credo all ranked ahead of their larger national rivals in Consumer Reports' survey.

Prepaid carriers Tracfone and Straight Talk also performed better than the national players, winning high marks for both quality and value. Two-thirds of Consumer Reports' survey respondents who switched to prepaid plans said they saved at least $20 a month.

First Published: November 29, 2012: 6:16 AM ET

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British banks may need more capital

The Bank of England orders immediate review of capital levels at British banks

LONDON (CNNMoney) -- British banks may not have enough capital to absorb future losses while supporting growth in the economy, the Bank of England warned Thursday.

The central bank, which takes on the responsibility of regulating U.K. banks from the Financial Services Authority (FSA) next year, said an urgent review of capital adequacy was necessary.

"The problem is manageable, and is already understood at least in part by markets," said BoE Governor Mervyn King. "But it does warrant immediate attention."

In its Financial Stability Report, the BoE said capital exceeded the minimum required. But the capital could be overstated because banks may be underestimating future losses, arising from the eurozone for example, as well as taking an overly optimistic view of risk on their books and not recognizing the full cost of past misconduct.

Related: Growing cost of HSBC's laundry list

Fines, penalties and compensation linked to the manipulation of the benchmark Libor lending rate, misleading customers about payment protection insurance and settlements in other cases have already cost Britain's banks billions of dollars.

King leaves office next year, to be replaced by Canada's central bank governor, Mark Carney. Carney will take on a much broader mandate, adding financial regulation to the bank's traditional monetary policy focus.

The British economy emerged from recession in the third quarter, thanks in part to spending on the London Olympics, but may contract again in the fourth due to slowing activity in the eurozone.

The BoE said the underlying picture for global growth remained weak, and it was therefore vital that banks move quickly to ensure they have a solid basis to support the economy.

Related: OECD warns of further weakness in Europe

Eurozone risks were still considerable, it added.

"While the immediate risks have reduced, there remains a possibility of disorderly outcomes, which if they occurred would have major implications for U.K. financial stability," it said.

Banks have reduced their exposure to the sovereign debt crisis in the weakest eurozone countries but continue to have significant links to non-bank businesses in the region.

The FSA will begin its review immediately.

If capital buffers needed to be strengthened as a consequence, the FSA "should ensure that the firms either raise capital or take steps to restructure their business and balance sheets in ways that do not hinder lending to the real economy," the BoE said.

First Published: November 29, 2012: 7:24 AM ET

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Why old media stocks are on top today

Stocks of traditional news and entertainment companies are besting new media upstarts.

NEW YORK (Money Magazine) -- Big media companies were supposed to die outright along with the old tube TV set.

At least that was the thinking a few years ago as up-and-comers Netflix (NFLX) and Hulu let you bypass commercials, and Facebook (FB) and YouTube made it possible to create and share your own material.

Given that, the recent performance of old- vs. new-media stocks might surprise you.

This year the legacy players have shot up 34%, more than twice the gain of the S&P 500. Yet Facebook has fallen 45% since it went public in May. Why are the old guys ahead?

In short, Americans still like to watch television, especially live sporting events and buzzed-about series. Average time in front of the TV is up since 2003, from 2.6 hours a day to 2.8, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

"TV-bypass is not a mainstream issue," says Bill Nygren, a portfolio manager at Oakmark Funds, who invests in several media stocks.

Related: 14 Money heroes: Their best financial advice

What's more, even as more consumers watch shows online, traditional media are finding ways to earn money off that shift by creating live streaming tools and cutting deals with Netflix and Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500). Social media firms, on the other hand, are still struggling to figure out a profitable business model.

Big-media stocks have gotten pricey, with the sector trading at 14.6 times forecast earnings for the next 12 months, compared with 13.5 for the S&P 500.

The good news is that for the strongest players, earnings are expected to grow faster than the S&P's in the coming years. So stick to these areas for growth worth the price.

Hook onto the cables

Cable-TV subscriptions are dropping off. But a high-speed connection has become a crucial service that consumers are willing to pay up for, says Ann Miletti, a senior portfolio manager at Wells Fargo Advantage Funds.

Broadband subs are as much as 110% more profitable than TV-only customers. That should be a boon to the two largest cable companies, Comcast (CMCSA) and Time Warner Cable (TWC, Fortune 500). "Cable has proven to be flexible," says Miletti.

Also, with the high-speed cable infrastructure largely in place, broadband now generates a lot of cash. This year Comcast raised its dividend 44% and announced a plan to repurchase $6.5 billion in stock. Time Warner Cable raised its payout 17% and announced a $4 billion buyback.

At these two cable giants, those payouts have room to grow. Both firms spend less than 40% of their cash on dividends, far less than the 69% that competitor Cablevision (CVC, Fortune 500) spends.

Own in-demand networks

To cash in on the majority of Americans who still watch TV, favor broadcasters with must-have content.

As the owner of the most popular cable channel, ESPN, Disney (DIS, Fortune 500) has pricing clout with the satellite and cable companies that air the sports network. Through 2017, price hikes for ESPN and other Disney channels could boost that fee revenue by 7.6% a year, reports Credit Suisse. Another edge: Two-thirds of Disney's TV revenue comes from fees, not often-unpredictable ad sales.

Traditional broadcast networks are thought of as the industry laggards: too dependent on ads, audiences shrinking.

CBS (CBS, Fortune 500), a true pure play, is off 13% since the start of a disappointing fall TV season. But therein lies an opportunity. CBS leads its peers in potential syndication deals and has nine of the top 20 shows.

Related: Tips for investing in stocks

"The value of broadcast is enormous," says David Bank, equity research analyst at RBC Capital Markets. CBS is cashing in on that value as broadcasters are collecting more in cable and satellite fees. In 2011, CBS earned 33 cents a subscriber per month. Analysts expect that figure to top $1 in five years.

Spread your bets

If you don't want to make a bet on a single stock, diversify with a fund that invests in the sector. Fidelity Select Multimedia (FBMPX) is a good option. To get a boost from global growth, try T. Rowe Price Media & Telecommunications (PRMTX), which has 19% of its portfolio overseas.

First Published: November 27, 2012: 5:30 AM ET

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Adam Bain: Twitter's adman delivers

Adam Bain at Twitter's San Francisco headquarters

(Fortune) -- Moments after Vice President Joe Biden called Paul Ryan's foreign-policy comments "a bunch of malarkey" during the Oct. 11 vice presidential debate, the Obama campaign bid on the trending term "malarkey" on Twitter. Users seized on the old barb, generating tens of thousands of messages tagged #malarkey, which created a commercial boomlet, complete with T-shirts and bumper stickers.

That is the kind of thing that really gets Adam Bain going. As it should: Twitter's president of global revenue is responsible for the growing array of advertising tools that make moments like these a profit center.

Bain, 39, started his career in news at one of the first regional city guides, Cleveland.com, and then spent two years as a web producer at the Los Angeles Times before he joined News Corp. (NWSA, Fortune 500) in 1999. An affable sales executive, he rose to become president of the Fox Audience Network, a division that included one of the largest digital advertising networks and was responsible for making money from properties like MySpace.

MORE: 19 most powerful names on Twitter

When Twitter CEO Dick Costolo recruited Bain in August 2010, the microblogging platform was the black sheep of social media sites. While LinkedIn (LNKD) and Facebook were building robust advertising engines in preparation for their much-anticipated initial public offerings, Twitter had a $3.7 billion valuation but no obvious business model.

Bain eschewed banner ads in favor of messages that showed up directly in the stream of tweets. Pundits wondered whether users would rebel, but it worked. Says Bain: "In 2011 the most retweeted tweet of the year actually came from a marketer itself." (It was a Wendy's tweet aimed at charities.)

With 140 million active users, Twitter has now become a staple for advertisers. It is expected to pull in $288 million in ad revenue this year, according to eMarketer, a 107% jump over 2011, and is now valued at $8 billion. What's more, the company launched mobile advertising in February and already brings in more revenue from that than from desktop users. "Even though Twitter's usage is way below what Facebook has, the company has been able to attract a lot of big brands," says eMarketer analyst Debra Aho Williamson. She credits Bain and his 250-person team.

Next up? Bain has a self-service tool for small businesses in the works, but as with the company's slow-to-emerge ad products, he is taking his time to learn from competitors before releasing it widely. By watching other companies struggle, Bain calculates Twitter will benefit. That's likely to be the strategy for an initial public offering as well: It's not expected before 2014.

This story is from the December 3, 2012 issue of Fortune.

First Published: November 27, 2012: 5:39 AM ET

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Stocks: Choppy trading ahead

Click on chart for more premarket data.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks could get a lift from the latest deal aimed at fixing Europe's debt crisis, although that could be offset by contentious fiscal cliff negotiations in Washington.

U.S. stock futures were mixed Tuesday, after Greece reached a deal with eurozone leaders over its debt.

Eurozone finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund announced late Monday they had reached an agreement that moves Greece closer to receiving a massive bailout payment. The deal includes lower interest rates for Greece, a debt buyback and more time for the debt-laden country to repay its rescue loans.

But the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warned early Tuesday that Europe's worsening economy next year will slow U.S. growth more than previously forecast.

Europe's Debt Crisis

European markets rose in morning trading, with Britain's FTSE 100 up 0.4%, Germany's DAX rose 0.5% and France's CAC 40 added 0.3%.

Meanwhile, Asian markets ended mixed. The Shanghai Composite lost 1.2%, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong ended up about 0.2% and Japan's Nikkei rose 0.4%.

Fear & Greed Index

On the domestic front, investors will continue to keep an eye on economic negotiations in Washington. With Congress back in session, lawmakers are under pressure to reach a deal with the White House before the end of the year in order to avoid falling over the fiscal cliff.

The U.S. economy will also be in focus Tuesday, with reports on consumer confidence, housing and manufacturing due out in the morning.

A report on durable goods is due before the bell, with economists from Briefing.com expecting a slight decline for October.

The Case-Shiller 20-city index will be released at 9 a.m. ET. Analysts expect that the average home price in these markets increased 3.1% in September, up from 2% the month before.

Related: Most affordable cities for homebuying

At 10 a.m. ET, the Conference Board will release its report on consumer confidence. This month's figure will be particularly important, as retailers gear up for the holiday shopping season. Economists expect a slight uptick in November.

Stocks ended mixed on Monday, the first full trading day since last Wednesday, as fiscal cliff concerns countered strong holiday shopping reports.

Companies: Packaged food maker ConAgra (CAG, Fortune 500) announced it has reached a deal to buy Ralcorp (RAH), the largest U.S. manufacturer of private label food, for $90 a share in cash -- a 28% premium from Monday's closing price.

Shares of Facebook (FB) rose more than 8% Monday after several analysts upgraded the stock. Facebook has rallied nearly 50% since touching a low of $17.55 in early September. The stock, currently around $26, is trading at its highest level since late July. Shares of Facebook gained another 1.3% in premarket trading Tuesday.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar gained against the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen.

Oil for January delivery gained 14 cents to $87.88 a barrel.

Gold futures for December delivery fell $3.10 to $1,746.50 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury edged up, pushing the yield down to 1.65% from 1.66% late Monday.

First Published: November 27, 2012: 6:05 AM ET

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SGB's jatropha vision: Jet fuel grown from seeds

An SG Biofuels worker examines the company's experimental jatropha crop.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Call it the jatropha bubble.

When word got out several years ago about the promise of a small subtropical tree called jatropha, it became a biofuel sensation. Advocates claimed the fruit tree was hearty, drought-resistant and could be grown on marginal land. Its oil seeds offered a promising biofuel that wouldn't compete with food crops.

Air Japan, Continental Airlines and Air New Zealand ran test flights of planes using jatropha-based biofuel, prompting more than 100 companies to plunk down millions on jatropha plantations in developing countries. Energy giant BP (BP) sunk $160 million into the farms, and one industry group projected that $1 billion would be invested annually in jatropha.

Then everything crashed. Jatropha, it turned out, was much harder to grow than once thought. Yields were inconsistent, and many farmers didn't have the training needed to manage commercial-scale crops. Most of the jatropha operations shut down.

Except for a few outliers. While most of its rivals raced to commercialize the fuel, San Diego-based SG Biofuels took a different path: It hired plant geneticists. They hunkered down in the laboratory to come up with the best genetic variations of jatropha -- ones that would be more consistent, easier to grow and could produce more oil.

"We were impressed they waited until the plant science was there," says Darrin Morgan, director of sustainable biofuel strategy at Boeing (BA, Fortune 500).

While the Seattle plane maker hasn't invested cash, Boeing has collaborated with the startup, sharing its own biofuel research and making industry introductions for SGB in Brazil and other markets.

Armed with backers like Boeing, $27 million from energy and biotech investors, and a team made up of former Monsanto executives and plant scientists, SGB is now testing its genetically boosted seeds in India and Brazil.

Plenty of observers are watching to see if it pays off.

"We have a strong desire to see SGB succeed," says Boeing's Morgan. "They're definitely the real thing."

Related story: Clean energy saves military lives

SGB has had a few new-death experiences.

The company was launched by CEO Kirk Haney, a former tech executive who made a fortune when his employer, ArrowPoint Communications, sold to Cisco for nearly $6 billion. Haney was working at a friend's sustainable forestry company in Guatemala when a local told him about the promise of jatropha.

Like everyone else, Haney saw opportunity. But when he sought advice from University of California plant scientists about what seeds and soil to use, they had never even heard of the jatropha tree.

"He left and I started Googling it, trying three or four different spellings," says plant geneticist Bob Schmidt, now SGB's chief scientist. "The more I learned about it, the more excited I became about it."

But Schmidt ultimately told Haney that the existing, wild jatropha seeds wouldn't work. In his view, anyone hoping to profit from the plant would first need to fund a breeding and biotechnology program to develop hybrid seeds with higher yields that could grow in some of the most infertile ground in Africa, Southeast Asia and Latin America.

Jatropha was a perfect candidate for experimentation, Schmidt says, because it reseeds quickly and has myriad genetic variations from which to pull.

In 2008, the startup lined up $200 million from investors. Then the economy collapsed -- and so did the jatropha hype. Three weeks before the cash hit the bank, investors pulled out.

Haney frantically reached out to friends and contacts, seeking new backers, but no one would bite. To keep things rolling, Haney convinced the company's 10 employees to work for stock or take pay cuts and wrote a personal check to pay the company's research bills.

That move "kept us alive and focused," he says.

Over the next two years, Haney rounded up $9.4 million from angel investors and from Flint Hills Resources, a large petroleum and ethanol refiner, and Life Technologies Corp., a biotechnology tools company. Last year, venture capital investors put $17 million more into the startup.

Today SGB has 13 field trials of its hybrid seeds in Brazil, Guatemala and India, and it's trying to fill 20 executive and management jobs to expand those markets and move into Africa and Southeast Asia. The company plans to put a big emphasis on farmer education, selling not only its seeds but also its expertise, such as helping pick the best locations and conditions for the seeds. SGB plans to collect royalties on fuel produced from its seeds.

One new customer, JetBIO -- a Brazilian consortium of Airbus, the Inter-American Development Bank and TAM Airlines -- is optimistic about an ongoing field trial it's doing with SGB in Brazil.

"I think this will be game-changing in the industry, because what it really lacked was proper genetics," says Rafael Abud, JetBIO's managing partner.

Still, the company's fate is tied to many forces beyond its control, including potential changes in renewable energy policies in countries across the globe. Right now, demand for biofuel is huge, but SGB has a lot to prove, says Michael Cox, an analyst who follows the space for Piper Jaffray.

This time around, jatropha needs to prove it can be an economical alternative to conventional fuels.

"The plant needs to perform," says Boeing's Morgan. "If so, they're the beginning of jatropha 2.0."

First Published: November 26, 2012: 5:37 AM ET

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Stocks poised for lower open

Click the chart for more premarket data.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Investors return to work Monday with one eye on the first weekend of the holiday shopping season, and the other eye on upcoming negotiations in Washington and Europe.

U.S. stock futures were lower Monday, in the first full trading day since last Wednesday.

No major economic or corporate reports are expected, so investors will be looking for signs of an economic recovery in retail sales. On Sunday, the National Retail Federation reported that the Black Friday weekend brought in a record $59.1 billion in sales, up 13% from last year.

On Friday, U.S. stocks rallied in a holiday-shortened trading day, led by gains in retail stocks.

Fear & Greed Index

Investors will also return their attention to the fiscal cliff. Congress is back in session, and will be under pressure to reach a deal before the end of the year.

Meanwhile, eurozone finance ministers are meeting for the third time to discuss the latest release of bailout funds for Greece. European stocks were all lower in midday trading, with London's FTSE off 0.4%, the CAC 40 in Paris down 0.7%, and the German DAX slipping 0.2%.

Asian markets ended mixed. The Shanghai Composite lost 0.5% and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong slid 0.2%, while Japan's Nikkei added 0.2%.

Companies: Shares of Knight Capital (KCG) rose in premarket trading after a report late Friday in the Wall Street Journal said it is weighing the sale of its market-making business, the unit whose trading glitch in August that cost the company more than $400 million.

Research in Motion (RIMM) shares rose more than 4% in premarket trading. Investors are hopeful the BlackBerry 10, debuting Jan. 30, will signal a turnaround for the company. A bullish analyst report triggered a rally Friday, with the stock rising 14%.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar gained on the euro and the British pound but lost ground versus the Japanese yen.

Oil for January delivery gained 57 cents to $87.74 a barrel.

Gold futures for December delivery lost $2.50 to $1,748.90 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury edged higher, pushing the yield down to 1.66% from 1.69% Friday.

First Published: November 26, 2012: 6:09 AM ET

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UBS fined over rogue trading case

UK regulator fines UBS for failings in rogue trading case

LONDON (CNNMoney) -- British regulators have fined UBS nearly $50 million, and Switzerland may force the bank to raise more capital, after it failed to prevent a rogue trader running up $2.3 billion in losses last year.

Kweku Adoboli, a trader on the bank's exchange traded funds desk in London, was found guilty last week of two counts of fraud and sentenced to seven years in prison for his role in Britain's biggest trading scandal.

The Financial Services Authority (FSA) and the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) said a joint investigation into the case had revealed serious deficiencies in risk management and controls at UBS' investment bank.

"UBS failed to question the increasing revenue of the desk and failed to ensure that there was a corresponding increase in the controls in place over the desk," said Tracey McDermott, the FSA's director of enforcement and financial crime. "As a result, Adoboli, a relatively junior trader, was allowed to take vast and risky market positions and UBS failed to manage the risks around that properly."

The FSA fined UBS £29.7 million ($47.5 million), equivalent to 15% of the revenue of the global synthetic equities division of the ETF desk, and said the penalty would have been £42.4 million but for the bank's willingness to settle at an early stage.

UBS, which was bailed out by the Swiss government in 2008, last month announced a major overhaul, saying it would shed 10,000 jobs by 2015 and save $3.6 billion as it scales back investment banking to focus on wealth management.

Related: 9 more banks under scrutiny in Libor investigation

UBS said in a statement it had cooperated fully with the regulators since the losses were first discovered and was pleased that "this chapter has been concluded".

UBS has since disciplined a number of staff, including clawing back bonuses and other payments worth more than £34 million. It has also introduced a number of changes to the way staff are evaluated and rewarded.

FINMA, which had already imposed new controls on the investment bank in the wake of the rogue trading scandal, said Monday it would hire an audit firm to review whether the measures had proved effective. It would also be re-examining the capital base of the investment bank.

"All of these measures will take place over the next few quarters," FINMA spokesman Tobias Lux told CNNMoney.

The regulators' investigation found Adoboli used one-sided internal futures positions, delayed booking of transactions and fictitious deals to conceal the extent of his unauthorized trading.

But it also found serious weaknesses in UBS trading and risk management systems, and in the supervision of the desk. Managers were aware that risk limits were being breached but failed to take disciplinary action or investigate further.

First Published: November 26, 2012: 7:04 AM ET

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Wal-Mart protests draw hundreds nationwide

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Hundreds of people -- including some employees -- have taken part in Black Friday demonstrations at Wal-Mart stores nationwide, protesting what they say is the retailer's retaliation against speaking out for better pay, fair schedules and affordable health care.

According to organizers from the union-backed group OUR Walmart, hundreds of workers and thousands of supporters rallied across 100 cities, including Landover Hills, Md., Miami, Oakland, Calif., Chicago, Danville, Ky., Dallas and Kenosha, Wis.

Wal-Mart pushed back, saying it knew of only a "few dozen" protests, and that most of the protesters were not its employees

In one of the biggest protests, nine people were arrested outside of a Paramount, Calif., Wal-Mart store for failing to disperse, according to a Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department statement. An OUR Walmart spokesman said three of those arrested were Wal-Mart workers. Those arrested were to be released without bail, unless they had previous arrest warrants.

The sheriff's department said about 1,000 people arrived by bus and private vehicles to participate in the Paramount protest, which was characterized as peaceful.

In Landover Hills, near Washington. D.C. ,organizers said about 350 people participated, although video of the event showed around 100 participants. Dawn Le, who works for the United Food and Commercial Workers Union, which backs OUR Walmart, would not say how many of those taking part were Wal-Mart employees.

Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500), in a statement late Friday, said worker absenteeism was down more than 60% from last year.

"We had our best Black Friday ever and OUR Walmart was unable to recruit more than a small number of associates to participate in these made for TV events," said David Tovar, vice president of corporate communications, in the statement. "Press reports are now exposing what we have said all along -- the large majority of protesters aren't even Walmart workers."

Janna Pea, an OUR Wal-Mart organizer in Dallas, said about 40 workers and about 150 supporters took part in a protest Thursday night.

One of those with her was Josue Mata, who says he walked off his job as an overnight maintenance employee to protest retaliation against people who want to speak out.

"I have four kids and I don't want them to grown up in a society where people disrespect them," he said. "This is a never-ending fight and we're never going to stop."

Related: Wal-Mart: Crowded, and not everyone is smiling.

Mata said he plans to return to work for his next scheduled shift on Sunday evening.

Pea said her protesters went to four Wal-Mart stores across the Dallas area, and while they were able to picket and speak to customers at half of them, they were asked to leave immediately by police at the others.

"We were still able to talk to customers and educate them about what was going on," she said. "We saw one person who was planning to go shopping, but then didn't end up going in. Instead, they rallied with us."

Muhammed Malik, who helped organize a protest at a Miami Wal-Mart, said roughly 70 workers participated in their hour-long demonstration Thursday night. He said one worker walked off his shift as he saw others rallying outside.

Wal-Mart has denied that it has retaliated against protesting workers, and said Friday that it has offered special holiday discounts to its employees for their efforts this season.

The protests were limited in scope, occurring at a handful of the company's approximately 4,000 U.S. stores. One employee at a store near Pittsburgh told CNNMoney he had heard of the protests only through the media.

Related: Black Friday shoppers out in full force

In an effort to stop the protests, Wal-Mart filed a complaint last week with the National Labor Relations Board, claiming that the demonstrations violated labor laws.

The retailer said the actions have disrupted business, and that the workers' ongoing actions violate the National Labor Relations Act, which prohibits picketing for any period over 30 days without filing a petition to form a union.

On Tuesday, OUR Walmart filed its own charge with the federal agency, claiming that Wal-Mart tried to deter workers from participating in the protests and interfered with their right to speak up.

But the NLRB was not able to rule in time or issue an injunction. Nancy Cleeland, a spokeswoman for the NLRB, said the complaint is too complex to make a ruling so soon.

Despite the talk of the protests, Wal-Mart reported larger Thanksgiving and Black Friday crowds than last year. As of Friday morning, the company said it had processed nearly 10 million register transactions.

Shares of Wal-Mart rose 1.9% in Friday trading.

First Published: November 23, 2012: 11:48 AM ET

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Cyber Monday starts early this year

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Post-Thanksgiving online discounts were once relegated to Cyber Monday -- but these days, websites are launching deals even before Black Friday. And the resulting shopping frenzy is expected to set records.

IBM Benchmark reported total online sales for Black Friday were up nearly 21% from last year. On Thanksgiving, sales rose more than 17% compared to 2011. Black Friday was the stronger of the two days, eclipsing Thanksgiving by 4:10 p.m. ET.

And a long list of retailers -- including Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500), Amazon (AMZN, Fortune 500), Best Buy (BBY, Fortune 500) and Ann Taylor (ANN) -- unveiled "pre-Black Friday deals" even before Thanksgiving. Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) posted its one-day online shopping discounts on Black Friday, as did beauty brand MAC Cosmetics.

"We've absolutely seen this whole weekend turn into one big promotional event," said Jay Henderson, strategy director for IBM Smarter Commerce. "Black Friday deals are no longer just for the [brick-and-mortar] store, and Cyber Monday deals are no longer just for Monday."

Related: 7 apps for holiday deals

Cyber Monday's original appeal, as the first weekday after Thanksgiving, was access to quick Internet speeds while at work. But now broadband at home is ubiquitous, and consumers can also shop on a slew of mobile devices.

And so retailers' online deals stretch well ahead of Cyber Monday -- in some cases, nearly a full week before.

"Retailers are trying to draw consumers in earlier, and one way to do that is to stagger the deals: Pre-Thanksgiving, some on Thanksgiving Day, another set over the weekend, and finally the big bang to close it out on Cyber Monday," Henderson said.

Mobile devices have become increasingly important during that week before Cyber Monday. The number of consumers using their mobile device to make a purchase on Black Friday this year increased by nearly two-thirds from 2011, IBM data show.

Apple's iPad made up nearly 10% of online shopping traffic on Black Friday this year, according to IBM, while the iPhone brought in almost 9% and Android devices comprised 5.5%.

And IBM said shoppers are taking advantage of the technology to find better deals. Despite spending more overall, the average online order fell 4.7% to $181.22, and the number of items in each order decreased 12% to 5.6.

Retailers are taking note. Companies like Macy's (M, Fortune 500) and Target (TGT, Fortune 500) developed special Black Friday mobile apps featuring exclusive deals and store maps.

Still, despite the expanded schedule, Cyber Monday itself remains an important part of the holiday shopping season.

Related: Holiday shopping forecast: Stronger, and predictably crazy

Andrew Lipsman, an industry analyst at data tracking firm ComScore, said he expects sales for the one-day Cyber Monday shopping event to be around $1.5 billion this year. That's up from his calculations of $1.3 billion in 2011.

It will be a few weeks before full details on Thanksgiving week's sales are made clear, but last year both Black Friday and Cyber Monday broke records. Total spending over the four-day weekend after Thanksgiving 2011 reached a record $52.4 billion, according to the National Retail Federation.

Black Friday 2012 was shaping up to be robust, with shoppers turning out even on Thanksgiving Day at stores including Toys R Us and Sears (SHLD, Fortune 500).

First Published: November 23, 2012: 12:08 PM ET

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Black Friday: Crowds grow, but sales are a question

Lots of holiday shoppers hit the stores, such as Toys R Us in New York's Times Square, on Thanksgiving night.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- There were more shoppers in the nation's malls and big-box stores on Black Friday than there were last year, according to a report issued Saturday. But retailers still aren't sure that starting the holiday shopping season on Thanksgiving night proved successful.

ShopperTrak, which measures and analyzes foot traffic at more than 50,000 retail locations nationwide, says Black Friday store visits climbed 3.5% from last year to more than 307.67 million.

But Black Friday retail sales fell 1.8% to $11.2 billion, the firm said.

"While foot traffic did increase on Friday, those Thursday deals attracted some of the spending that's usually meant for Friday," said Bill Martin, ShopperTrak's founder, in a statement.

ShopperTrak said foot traffic rose in most of the nation except for the West, where it was down more than 11%.

"Black Friday shopping continues to expand into Thanksgiving Day and will impact the way we look at all of the 'Black' weekend results, since more shopping hours allows for more shopping visits and a smoothing of sales across all of the days," said Martin.

Shoppers took advantage of early Thanksgiving night openings by retailers such as Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500), Target (TGT, Fortune 500), Sears (SHLD, Fortune 500) and Toys R Us.

Related: Black Friday shoppers out in full force

"By opening even earlier, the retailers have been able to attract a broader spectrum of consumers to participate in Black Friday -- not everyone is willing to wake up at 4 a.m.," said Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst at the NPD Group. "They definitely got a lot more business early and upfront."

Shoppers started lining up at the Sears at North Point Mall in Alpharetta, Ga., around 6:30 p.m. on Thursday, and by the time the retailer opened, there was a crowd of about 500 people, said Nick Nicolosi, the mall's general manager. When the clock struck midnight and other stores opened, Nicolosi estimated that about 5,000 people were waiting to storm the stores -- the biggest Black Friday crowd North Point has seen since it began hosting its Rockin Shoppin Eve event five years ago.

La Plaza Mall in McAllen, Texas, had to use its off-duty police officers and security to control traffic outside of stores.

"Many stores including Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) had to close their store entrances temporarily as they had reached capacity with hundreds of shoppers waiting to enter the stores," said Isabel Rodriguez-Vera, area director of marketing.

Related: Cyber Monday is already here

Not everyone was willing to wait in line. Online sales soared over the two-day shopping period, climbing more than 17% from last year on Thanksgiving and nearly 21% on Black Friday, according to IBM Benchmark. Sales made from mobile devices grew by nearly two-thirds over 2011.

A long list of online retailers -- including Wal-Mart, Amazon (AMZN, Fortune 500), Best Buy (BBY, Fortune 500) and The Disney Store -- unveiled "pre-Black Friday deals" even before Thanksgiving.

"We've absolutely seen this whole weekend turn into one big promotional event," said Jay Henderson, strategy director for IBM Smarter Commerce. "Black Friday deals are no longer just for the [brick-and-mortar] store, and Cyber Monday deals are no longer just for Monday."

However, the initial surge is likely to be temporary. By Sunday morning, Cohen expects shopper traffic to fall back to normal pre-holiday sales levels. "There are more hours to shop, but consumers don't have more relatives or more money in their pocket, so once all the dust settles, we won't see too much growth overall," he said.

Julianne Pepitone and Hibah Yousuf contributed to this article.

First Published: November 24, 2012: 6:12 PM ET

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RIM jumps 14% on BlackBerry 10 hopes

RIM, and CEO Thorsten Heins, have spent months assuring that BlackBerry 10 is worth the wait -- and investors appear optimistic.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Hating BlackBerry has become something of a bloodsport, but Research in Motion shares have been on an incredible tear for the past two months -- and the RIM rally continued Friday after a bullish analyst report.

National Bank Financial analyst Kris Thompson upped his price target on the stock and his predictions for product shipments in 2014. RIM (RIMM) shares closed 14% higher Friday as a result.

Last week, RIM announced that its long-delayed BlackBerry 10 operating system will finally debut on January 30, a year after the company's next-generation smartphones and software were slated to go on sale.

RIM initially said its new BlackBerry 10 software and devices would be available at the beginning of 2012. The company first delayed that to the end of 2012, and then again to the beginning of 2013.

The new operating system is meant to be the crown jewel of the company's turnaround, so the delays were incredibly troublesome. Some critics wondered if RIM would even survive long enough to launch BlackBerry 10.

Related story: RIM's fate hangs on BlackBerry 10

RIM CEO Thorsten Heins has spent the past few months assuring naysayers that the software will launch in early 2013, and that it will be worth the wait.

Investors appear to be growing more optimistic as well. RIM shares have gained an astounding 59% over the past two months.

That jump is even more remarkable when compared with the slump Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) suffered in the same two-month period. The smartphone king hit bear-market status this month, falling to an intra-day low of about $506 last Friday -- down nearly $200 from the all-time high it hit on September 21.

The Apple sell-off comes after an incredible runup over the past few years -- and during a tumultuous time in the broader stock market on concerns about the fiscal cliff and Europe's continued debt crisis.

First Published: November 23, 2012: 9:56 AM ET

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Cyber Monday starts early this year

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Post-Thanksgiving online discounts were once relegated to Cyber Monday -- but these days, websites are launching deals even before Black Friday. And the resulting shopping frenzy is expected to set records.

IBM Benchmark reported total online sales for Black Friday were up nearly 24% from last year, as of 6 p.m. ET. On Thanksgiving, sales rose more than 17% compared to 2011. Black Friday was the stronger of the two days, eclipsing Thanksgiving by 4:10 p.m. ET.

And a long list of retailers -- including Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500), Amazon (AMZN, Fortune 500), Best Buy (BBY, Fortune 500) and Ann Taylor (ANN) -- unveiled "pre-Black Friday deals" even before Thanksgiving. Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) posted its one-day online shopping discounts on Black Friday, as did beauty brand MAC Cosmetics.

"We've absolutely seen this whole weekend turn into one big promotional event," said Jay Henderson, strategy director for IBM Smarter Commerce. "Black Friday deals are no longer just for the [brick-and-mortar] store, and Cyber Monday deals are no longer just for Monday."

Related: 7 apps for holiday deals

Cyber Monday's original appeal, as the first weekday after Thanksgiving, was access to quick Internet speeds while at work. But now broadband at home is ubiquitous, and consumers can also shop on a slew of mobile devices.

And so retailers' online deals stretch well ahead of Cyber Monday -- in some cases, nearly a full week before.

"Retailers are trying to draw consumers in earlier, and one way to do that is to stagger the deals: Pre-Thanksgiving, some on Thanksgiving Day, another set over the weekend, and finally the big bang to close it out on Cyber Monday," Henderson said.

Mobile devices have become increasingly important during that week before Cyber Monday. The number of consumers using their mobile device to make a purchase on Thanksgiving this year increased 66% from 2011, IBM data show.

Apple's iPad made up nearly 11% of online shopping traffic on Thanksgiving this year, according to IBM, while the iPhone brought in 9%.

Retailers are taking note. Companies like Macy's (M, Fortune 500) and Target (TGT, Fortune 500) developed special Black Friday mobile apps featuring exclusive deals and store maps.

Still, despite the expanded schedule, Cyber Monday itself remains an important part of the holiday shopping season.

Related: Holiday shopping forecast: Stronger, and predictably crazy

Andrew Lipsman, an industry analyst at data tracking firm ComScore, said he expects sales for the one-day Cyber Monday shopping event to be around $1.5 billion this year. That's up from his calculations of $1.3 billion in 2011.

It will be a few weeks before full details on Thanksgiving week's sales are made clear, but last year both Black Friday and Cyber Monday broke records. Total spending over the four-day weekend after Thanksgiving 2011 reached a record $52.4 billion, according to the National Retail Federation.

Black Friday 2012 was shaping up to be robust, with shoppers turning out even on Thanksgiving Day at stores including Toys R Us and Sears (SHLD, Fortune 500).

First Published: November 23, 2012: 12:08 PM ET

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Wal-Mart protests draw hundreds nationwide

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Hundreds of people -- including some employees -- have taken part in Black Friday demonstrations at Wal-Mart stores nationwide, protesting what they say is the retailer's retaliation against speaking out for better pay, fair schedules and affordable health care.

According to organizers from the union-backed group OUR Walmart, hundreds of workers and thousands of supporters rallied across 100 cities, including Landover Hills, Md., Miami, Oakland, Calif., Chicago, Danville, Ky., Dallas and Kenosha, Wis.

Wal-Mart pushed back, saying it knew of only a "few dozen" protests, and that most of the protesters were not its employees

In one of the biggest protests, nine people were arrested outside of a Paramount, Calif., Wal-Mart store for failing to disperse, according to a Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department statement. An OUR Walmart spokesman said three of those arrested were Wal-Mart workers. Those arrested were to be released without bail, unless they had previous arrest warrants.

The sheriff's department said about 1,000 people arrived by bus and private vehicles to participate in the Paramount protest, which was characterized as peaceful.

In Landover Hills, near Washington. D.C. ,organizers said about 350 people participated, although video of the event showed around 100 participants. Dawn Le, who works for the United Food and Commercial Workers Union, which backs OUR Walmart, would not say how many of those taking part were Wal-Mart employees.

Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500), in a statement late Friday, said worker absenteeism was down more than 60% from last year.

"We had our best Black Friday ever and OUR Walmart was unable to recruit more than a small number of associates to participate in these made for TV events," said David Tovar, vice president of corporate communications, in the statement. "Press reports are now exposing what we have said all along -- the large majority of protesters aren't even Walmart workers."

Janna Pea, an OUR Wal-Mart organizer in Dallas, said about 40 workers and about 150 supporters took part in a protest Thursday night.

One of those with her was Josue Mata, who says he walked off his job as an overnight maintenance employee to protest retaliation against people who want to speak out.

"I have four kids and I don't want them to grown up in a society where people disrespect them," he said. "This is a never-ending fight and we're never going to stop."

Related: Wal-Mart: Crowded, and not everyone is smiling.

Mata said he plans to return to work for his next scheduled shift on Sunday evening.

Pea said her protesters went to four Wal-Mart stores across the Dallas area, and while they were able to picket and speak to customers at half of them, they were asked to leave immediately by police at the others.

"We were still able to talk to customers and educate them about what was going on," she said. "We saw one person who was planning to go shopping, but then didn't end up going in. Instead, they rallied with us."

Muhammed Malik, who helped organize a protest at a Miami Wal-Mart, said roughly 70 workers participated in their hour-long demonstration Thursday night. He said one worker walked off his shift as he saw others rallying outside.

Wal-Mart has denied that it has retaliated against protesting workers, and said Friday that it has offered special holiday discounts to its employees for their efforts this season.

The protests were limited in scope, occurring at a handful of the company's approximately 4,000 U.S. stores. One employee at a store near Pittsburgh told CNNMoney he had heard of the protests only through the media.

Related: Black Friday shoppers out in full force

In an effort to stop the protests, Wal-Mart filed a complaint last week with the National Labor Relations Board, claiming that the demonstrations violated labor laws.

The retailer said the actions have disrupted business, and that the workers' ongoing actions violate the National Labor Relations Act, which prohibits picketing for any period over 30 days without filing a petition to form a union.

On Tuesday, OUR Walmart filed its own charge with the federal agency, claiming that Wal-Mart tried to deter workers from participating in the protests and interfered with their right to speak up.

But the NLRB was not able to rule in time or issue an injunction. Nancy Cleeland, a spokeswoman for the NLRB, said the complaint is too complex to make a ruling so soon.

Despite the talk of the protests, Wal-Mart reported larger Thanksgiving and Black Friday crowds than last year. As of Friday morning, the company said it had processed nearly 10 million register transactions.

Shares of Wal-Mart rose 1.9% in Friday trading.

First Published: November 23, 2012: 11:48 AM ET

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Why all-cash portfolios can be risky, too

NEW YORK (Money Magazine) -- My husband is 41 and currently has his money invested in a low-return money market account. Given our age, I think we should put our money into more aggressive funds. But my husband is very leery of any kind of gamble, which is how he views the stock market. What do you suggest? -- S.M., Juneau, Alaska

It makes perfect sense for your husband to keep a reserve for emergencies and such in an FDIC-insured money market account. But if he's investing all of your money that way, including dough that you'll be counting on for long-term goals like retirement, then he's probably being way too cautious.

But you need to be careful about how you deal with this issue. His fear about losing money in the market is understandable given some of the tumbles stocks have taken over the past dozen years.

So you want to acknowledge his legitimate concern, but at the same show that he may be taking an even bigger gamble by investing too conservatively.

Related: Retirement investing in uncertain times

Here's an example that may help bring him around. Let's say a 41-year-old who earns $60,000 a year already has $100,000 saved for retirement in a 401(k) or similar savings vehicle and with his own contributions, plus the employer match, adds 15% of salary to that account each year. Let's further assume that this person would like to retire at 67 -- the age a 41-year-old today will be eligible to collect his full Social Security benefit -- and live on 75% of his pre-retirement salary.

So the question is, how does that 41-year-old's investing strategy affect his odds of pulling this off?

To find out, I ran several scenarios through an online retirement income calculator that, among other things, allows you to plug in different allocations of stocks, bonds and cash to see how your chances of achieving a secure retirement go up or down.

I started by assuming the $100,000, plus all future contributions would be invested the way your husband prefers: 100% in cash. The probability that investing this way would provide a combination of draws from savings plus Social Security equal to 75% of his pre-retirement salary between the ages of 67 and 95 was just 2%.

That's right. A 2% chance. Not exactly comforting.

I then stepped things up a bit but only slightly, assuming a portfolio invested 100% in bonds. The outlook was better, 31%, but I doubt that most people would say a one-in-three chance inspires confidence.

Next, I began throwing some stocks into the mix. By investing just 10% into a diversified portfolio of stocks and leaving the rest in bonds, the probability of success jumped to 47%.

With 30% in stocks, the prospects improved even more to 69%, and a 50-50 portfolio, yielded a bit more than a three-in-four chance, or 76%.

Interestingly, the likelihood of success inched up only a smidgen, to 78%, when I tried a portfolio of 70% stocks and 30% bonds.

Related: Make your retirement savings last

And going to an 80% stocks-20% bonds portfolio didn't increase the chances. They remained at 78% (although with both the 70-30 and 80-20 portfolios, I assumed the allocation changed to 50-50 at retirement, as I doubt many retirees would want to remain so heavily invested in stocks once they've retired).

The fact that the chances of success plateaued at 78% in this example doesn't mean that adding more stocks can't improve your odds of retirement success.

It's likely that going to 70% or 80% stocks would result in a larger nest egg that could support even larger withdrawals so that you might be able to live on more than 75% of your pre-retirement salary. But going to ever-higher stock allocations also has a price. Your portfolio will get whacked harder during market downturns, and a setback on the eve of retirement could prove especially problematic.

It's important to remember that all these percentages are estimates, not guarantees.

But based on the returns of stocks, bonds and cash equivalents over very long periods, it's extremely unlikely that an all-cash portfolio would outperform a diversified group of stocks and bonds over a span of two decades or more. That's no accident. That's the way the markets work given the risk and reward potential of different investments.

So what should your husband make of this little example?

The main lesson is that by keeping all his money in cash he is gambling with his retirement -- that is, jeopardizing his chances of building a nest egg large enough to maintain the standard of living he enjoyed during his career throughout retirement.

But another important takeaway is that he doesn't have to go banzai with stocks to do a lot better. Even a little exposure to stocks can have a big impact on returns over many years.

Related: Your pension: Lump sum vs. monthly payments

So while your husband's anxiety about stocks' volatility might prevent him from putting 70% to 80% of his portfolio in equities -- which is the percentage that many advisers would recommend for someone his age -- maybe he'd be willing to try between 30% and 50% for the payoff of greater retirement security down the road.

Of course, if he's intent on sticking with cash, there is another way he can boost his chances of success. He can save more. But he'd better be prepared to really sock it away.

In the example above, our 41-year-old would need to save 30% a year in an all-cash portfolio in order to have the same shot at retiring at 67 on 75% of his salary as he would saving 15% annually and splitting his money evenly between stocks and bonds.
Even if you could manage such a prodigious feat, diverting such a large chunk of income into savings year after year would seriously impinge on your ability to enjoy life.

So I suggest you go over this column with your husband and see if you can arrive at a compromise that allows you both to feel better while also improving your financial prospects. Otherwise, your hubby better start doing some heavy-duty saving.

First Published: November 23, 2012: 6:30 AM ET

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Black Friday shoppers out in full force

A crowd of shoppers gathered ahead of the midnight opening of Victoria's Secret at Columbia Mall in Grand Forks, N.D.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Shoppers turned out in droves at malls and big-box stores around the country, taking advantage of Black Friday deals as retailers opened their doors earlier than ever on Thanksgiving.

Toys R Us, Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500) and Sears (SHLD, Fortune 500) got a head start on the big shopping weekend by opening at 8 p.m. on Thanksgiving Day. That's even earlier than last year, when the toy retailer got a 9 p.m. start and Wal-Mart , the world's largest retailer, opened at 10 p.m.

The crowd at the Toys R Us in New York's Times Square started gathering about four hours ahead of the open, and was larger than it was last year, said CEO Jerry Storch.

"Our customers love the earlier opening," said Storch. "The atmosphere is celebratory and the crowds have been happy and excited to start their holiday shopping."

While shoppers were excited for the deals, particularly electronics uch as the Nintendo WiiU and a "buy one, get one for $1" deal on video games, many did have to rearrange their Thanksgiving dinner plans in order to take advantage of this year's earlier opening. h Many planned to shop, and then eat a late dinner.

New York City resident Shay Brown, 25, who spent Thanksgiving with relatives in Pittsburgh, decided to head to the Wal-Mart in Pittsburgh's Robinson Township for Black Friday shopping for the first time this year with her family, but wasn't thrilled about the early opening time.

"We could have been sitting around enjoying each others' company, but instead we had to rush here to get the deals," said Shay, who was shopping for DVDs.

Fellow Pittsburgh Wal-Mart shopper Vanessa Moore, 36, however, welcomed the 8 p.m. opening. She arrived two hours early to the store with nine other family members, and planned to hit the nearby Kmart and mall after Wal-Mart.

"I actually like that they're doing it on Thursday, because after you're done eating, there's really nothing to do," said the Steubenville, Ohio resident who is a veteran Black Friday shopper.

Related: Confessions of extreme Black Friday shoppers

Shoppers started lining up at the Sears at North Point Mall in Alpharetta, Ga., around 6:30 p.m. on Thursday, and by the time the retailer opened, there was a crowd of about 500 people, said Nick Nicolosi, the mall's general manager.

A second rush began at 10:30 p.m., as shoppers lined up to enter the rest of the mall's retailers and Macy's (M, Fortune 500) ahead of their midnight openings.

Nicolosi estimated that the mall's parking lots were over half full when the clock struck midnight, and about 5,000 people were waiting to storm the stores -- the biggest Black Friday crowd North Point has seen since it began hosting its Rockin Shoppin Eve event five years ago.

Related: 7 apps to find holiday deals

Deals on home furnishings, including bed sets and rugs, and appliances were particularly popular this year, in addition to sweaters, boots and electronics.

At Macy's, Black & Decker waffle makers were among the items to sell out early, said Nicolosi. Shoppers also rushed to buy Keurig coffee makers and travel luggage.

"If the amount of bags is any indication, I think we'll have a big Black Friday this year," said Nicolosi.

The mall is expecting a third big wave of shoppers as JC Penney (JCP, Fortune 500) opens its doors at 6 a.m., two hours later than its Black Friday opening last year.

Related: Black Friday deals to avoid

At malls around the country, Limited Brands (LTD, Fortune 500)' Victoria's Secret seemed to be inviting large crowds. At North Grand Mall in Ames, Iowa, hoodies and yoga pants were sold out withing five minutes, according to a spokeswoman, and in Lufkin, Texas, the checkout lines stretched to the door even at 2 a.m., two hours after the store had opened.

Meanwhile, shoppers were also hitting the stores online on Thanksgiving and Black Friday. As of 9 p.m. ET on Thanksgiving, online shopping sales were up almost 18% over a year earlier, according to IBM. Consumers shopping from a mobile device reached a new record of almost 30%.

Black Friday traditionally marks the start of the holiday shopping season each year. Stores consider it the most important time of the year, because they can make up to 40% of their annual sales in the November-December period.

Though crowds are expected to be smaller compared to last year, sales on Black Friday are forecast to edge up at least 8% to more than $21 billion this year, according to MasterCard Advisors SpendingPulse. Retailers are pulling out all the stops to reel in shoppers, including incentives such as layaway plans, price matching and apps.

-- CNNMoney's Emily Jane Fox, Annalyn Kurtz and James O'Toole contributed to this article.

First Published: November 23, 2012: 6:00 AM ET

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German sentiment buoyed by China, U.S.

Business climate index from Munich's Ifo Institute shows first gain since March

LONDON (CNNMoney) -- The German economy is showing signs of resilience, after growth slowed in the third quarter, as companies look beyond the eurozone crisis to brighter prospects in China and the United States.

The Ifo business climate index published Friday rose to 101.4 in November, from 100 in October, showing its first month-on-month gain since March.

Companies expressed greater satisfaction with their current situation and were slightly less pessimistic about the future.

"The German economy is holding up in the face of the euro crisis," said Ifo Institute president Hans-Werner Sinn.

German growth has been hampered by the recession in the eurozone, with gross domestic product expanding by just 0.2% in the third quarter, compared with 0.3% in the second and 0.5% in the first.

Related: Eurozone risks on the rise

Economists expect Europe's powerhouse to contract in the fourth quarter. But the Ifo survey of some 7,000 companies in manufacturing and trade suggests it should avoid following many of its regional trading partners into recession.

"To the contrary, the creeping decoupling from the rest of the eurozone -- only one third of German exports currently go to eurozone peers -- enables the economy to benefit quickly from any rebound of the global economy," said Carsten Brzeski, senior economist at ING. "In this regard, latest signs of improvement from the US and China were good news for German companies."

China posted third quarter GDP growth at an annual rate of 7.4%, way below its long-term average of around 10%. But recent data point to a rebound in the fourth quarter.

HSBC's purchasing managers' index published Thursday showed China factory output accelerating.

U.S. growth picked up in the third quarter and there is evidence of a sustained recovery in the housing sector.

Related: Service sector adds to eurozone gloom

But the German economy still faces considerable headwinds, as reflected in deteriorating confidence in the country's service sector.

PMI data this week showed the sharpest fall in activity in Germany's services industry since June 2009. The outlook was the most pessimistic since March 2009, as firms worried about leaner client budgets and the impact of the eurozone crisis on investment decisions.

Ifo's separate survey of some 2,500 service sector firms confirmed that the outlook was deteriorating. The overall climate reading slipped to 8.5 in November, down from 9.1 in October.

First Published: November 23, 2012: 7:16 AM ET

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China's factories show accelerated growth

Factory activity increased in China this month.

HONG KONG (CNNMoney) -- China's manufacturing industry showed further signs of improvement in November, according to a key early indicator.

HSBC said its initial Chinese purchasing managers' index, or PMI, rose to a 13-month high of 50.4 in November from 49.5 last month. The reading ticked above the benchmark of 50, meaning that manufacturing is now in a state of accelerated expansion. The bank's final reading for the month will be released Dec. 1.

"This confirms that the economic recovery continues to gain momentum towards the year end," Hongbin Qu, an economist at HSBC, said in a statement.

"However, it is still the early stage of recovery and global economic growth remains fragile," Qu said. "This calls for a continuation of policy easing to strengthen the recovery."

China's economy has grown at an average of around 10% a year for the past three decades, allowing the country to rocket past international competition to become the world's second largest economy. Along the way, China's markets have opened to the rest of the world, trade has increased dramatically and many of China's citizens have joined an emerging middle class.

But last month, Beijing reported that GDP growth slowed in the third quarter to 7.4% as weak demand -- especially in the eurozone -- weighed on exports.

The downturn, however, is beginning to look like a temporary phenomenon. China's economy is heavily dependent on the manufacturing sector, which appears to be mounting a strong recovery.

Zhiwei Zhang, an economist at Nomura, said in a note that the new HSBC data bolsters forecasts of a GDP rebound in the fourth quarter.

Related: China's Communist Party anoints new leaders

The turnaround comes at a crucial time for China's Communist Party, which last week completed a once-per-decade leadership transition.

The party, meeting in Beijing, named seven men to its powerful Politburo Standing Committee. Xi Jinping, a chemical engineer with a prestigious pedigree, was installed as the next party boss and tapped to be China's next president.

First Published: November 21, 2012: 9:44 PM ET

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Wal-mart workers get ready for Black Friday protest

Wal-Mart employees in June joined a rally in Los Angeles to protest what they call retaliation from the nation's largest retailer.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Shoppers and stores around the country are preparing for big Black Friday sales, but a group of Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500) workers are getting ready for a protest.

"I'll do whatever it takes to speak out about our concerns -- I'm willing to put my job on the line," says Monique Velasquez, a single mother of five who works in Wal-Mart's photo department in Pico Rivera, California. Velasquez plans to join the protest on Friday.

The union-backed group OUR Walmart, which has helped organize the post-Thanksgiving walk-out, expects thousands of workers around the country to participate. Workers say they are joining the protest to ask the country's largest employer to end what they call retaliation against speaking out for better pay, fair schedules and affordable health care.

In an effort to stop the workers from protesting, Wal-Mart filed a complaint last week with the National Labor Relations Board, claiming that the protesters violated labor laws.

The federal labor agency, which was under pressure to act within 72 hours of getting the complaint, has said that it is "highly unlikely" to have a ruling on the complaint in time to stop the Black Friday protests. Nancy Cleeland, a spokeswoman for the NLRB said the complaint is too complex to make a ruling so soon.

Wal-Mart's complaint claimed that the United Food and Commercial Workers Union and its subsidiary OUR Walmart unlawfully organized picket lines and other demonstrations in the past six months. The retailer said the actions have disrupted business, and that the workers' ongoing actions violate the National Labor Relations Act, which prohibits picketing for any period over 30 days without filing a petition to form a union.

On Tuesday, OUR Walmart filed its own charge with the federal agency, claiming that Wal-Mart tried to deter workers from participating in the protests and interfered with their right to speak up.

The labor agency's Cleeland said that if it finds that Wal-Mart's claims have merit, it will go to court to seek an injunction on behalf of the retailer to stop the union-backed group from organizing the protests.

If the agency doesn't find merit, the charge will be dismissed or withdrawn, she said.

Labor law experts say that Wal-Mart could have a tough time winning this one. That's because the labor laws that prohibit picketing over 30 days applies only to protesters trying to form a union or gain collective bargaining rights, not employees who are protesting against retaliation.

If the employees' claims are true, Wal-Mart could itself be found in violation of the National Labor Rights Act, which protects workers against retaliation for speaking up, according to Angela Cornell, director of the Labor Law Clinic at Cornell University's law school.

For its part, Wal-Mart plans to go full steam ahead on Black Friday. It will start doling out its "doorbuster" deals at 8 p.m. on Thursday, just after shoppers finish their Thanksgiving feasts.

Related: Wal-Mart Black Friday deals

The retailer is offering special deals to customers who are in line inside its stores at 10 p.m., guaranteeing three special offers -- the Apple iPad2, an Emerson 32 inch TV and an LG Blu-ray player.

On Monday, the retailer tweeted: "Don't believe everything you read in the union press releases. We don't think their #BlackFriday activity will have an impact on customers."

OUR Wal-Mart, meanwhile, has more than 30,000 "likes" on its Facebook page, and has collected more than $60,000 in donations to support workers who walk off work in protest on Black Friday.

First Published: November 22, 2012: 12:06 AM ET

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Fitch cuts Sony, Panasonic debt to junk

Sony and Panasonic were downgraded Thursday by Fitch.

HONG KONG (CNNMoney) -- Fitch Ratings downgraded Sony and Panasonic debt to junk status Thursday and said the ailing Japan-based consumer electronic makers both needed radical restructuring to improve their prospects.

Panasonic's rating was cut to BB from BBB-, while Sony was moved to BB- from BBB-, with a negative outlook. Both companies now carry speculative, or junk, ratings.

The downgrades are the latest in a string for Sony and Panasonic, which have been haemorrhaging money and struggling to find positive momentum.

The companies, once the crown jewels of the high-tech Japanese economy, have been hit in recent years by a strong yen and weak demand for televisions. Sony now has a market cap of just more than $10 billion, and hasn't turned a profit in four years.

Its shares are trading near their lowest levels in three decades, and even closed below the 800 yen mark in Tokyo earlier this month.

"We think there is little headroom for Sony," Fitch's Steve Durose said in a statement.

"Without a radical change to the structure of their businesses it is difficult to see profitability improving enough for [Sony and Panasonic] to regain investment-grade ratings," Durose said.

Related: Something is rotten in Japan

Panasonic seems to be in better shape than Sony, and less dependent on its struggling core electronics business. Sony is the subject of frequent speculation as a possible takeover target, with cash-rich competitors like Apple, Google and Microsoft all reported as possible suitors.

Related: Can Sony be saved?

Sony made a play of its own in recent months, taking a stake in Olympus, the scandal-plagued company embroiled in an epic accounting fraud. But analysts remain skeptical that Sony will be able to achieve a long-term turnaround.

"The future of both companies will depend on their ability to curb loss-making segments and rediscover the kind of technological leadership which historically enabled them to develop must-have products," Durose said.

First Published: November 22, 2012: 5:39 AM ET

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New European worries weigh on stocks

Click on chart for more premarket data.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks were poised to take a hit Wednesday after European finance ministers concluded a marathon meeting without finalizing the details of a debt-reduction package for Greece

U.S. stock futures were lower across the board and stocks were slightly lower across Europe as the failure to reach a deal stirred new worries about European sovereign debt. The officials had been expected to agree to release the funds, with payment likely in December.

Britain's FTSE 100 slipped 0.2%, while the DAX in Germany lost only 0.1% and France's CAC 40 fell 0.2%.

In the U.S., reports will be released on consumer sentiment and initial jobless claims, and in corporate news, equipment maker Deere (DE, Fortune 500) is scheduled to release its quarterly results in the morning.

U.S. stocks ended flat Tuesday, amid a sharp sell-off in Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500) shares after the company reported a massive loss and renewed worries about Europe.

Fear & Greed Index

World markets: Asian markets closed higher. The Shanghai Composite gained 1.1%, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong rose 1.4%, and Japan's Nikkei posted a 0.9% gain.

Economy: At 8:30 a.m. ET, the Labor Department will release data on initial jobless claims for the week ended November 17, which are expected to total 423,000, according to a survey of analysts by Briefing.com. At 10:00, the University of Michigan will release the final version of its consumer sentiment index for November.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar was higher against the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen.

Oil for January delivery fell $1.80 to $87.41 a barrel.

Gold futures for December delivery rose $2.30 to $1,725.90 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury edged higher, pushing the yield down to 1.57% from 1.59% late Tuesday.

First Published: November 21, 2012: 6:21 AM ET

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Deficit reduction? Not without entitlement reform

President Obama and House Speaker John Boehner are negotiating a deficit reduction plan.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- As the fiscal cliff nears, the question remains whether policy makers will meaningfully address the biggest drivers of the national debt: Medicare, Social Security and Medicaid.

Experts say it's unlikely they will ... at least not in the next few weeks. The two sides have vastly different views on health care, with Democrats looking to avoid benefit cuts and Republicans focused on limiting the federal government's liability.

The nation is staring into the fiscal cliff, which involves $7 trillion worth of spending increases and tax cuts over a decade. If no other action is taken, it will start to take effect in January, kicking off with $491 billion in deficit reduction in fiscal 2013, a large chunk of which will come from the expiration of the Bush tax cuts. Another $54 million in spending cuts are set to take place as a result of last year's debt-reduction deal.

Empowered by his re-election victory, Obama is centering the conversation on increasing taxes on the wealthy. House Republicans, who lost seats on November 6, have said they are willing to talk about raising revenue if it is accompanied by spending cuts and entitlement reform. House Speaker John Boehner called on Democrats Monday to come forward with proposals.

Related: Debt ceiling may collide with fiscal cliff

One main reason few in Washington are tackling entitlement reform is because it's tough, experts say.

Medicare and Social Security have long been the third rail of politics: No one wants to touch them since modifications often prompt angry outcries from voters, particularly the influential senior bloc.

"It is Medicare and Medicaid that are driving the spending side of the fiscal problem," said Steve Bell, economic policy director of the Bipartisan Policy Center. "The president has managed to make it a discussion about tax cuts on rich people."

Medicare, in particular, is a problem. The health insurance program for seniors is projected to eat up 3.7% of the economy in 2012 and 5.3% by 2030. By 2024, the portion of Medicare that funds hospital care will not be able to meet all its bills.

In his first term, Obama addressed the swift rise in Medicare costs by reducing $716 billion in payments to insurance companies participating in the Medicare Advantage program, hospitals, skilled nursing facilities and other providers. It also created an independent board charged with keeping costs under control if they exceed a preset cap. The law specifies that benefits cannot be cut to reduce expenses.

Boehner, meanwhile, pointed Monday to the House budget plan, crafted by Rep. Paul Ryan, who unsuccessfully ran for vice president this year. Ryan would open Medicare to competition in the private industry, giving seniors vouchers to pay their premiums.

The two sides are equally far apart when it comes to dealing with Medicaid, the health insurance program for the poor. Under Obama's Affordable Care Act, the program was expanded to include all adults with incomes of up to 133% of the poverty line. (The Supreme Court in June allowed states to opt into the expansion.) Ryan, on the other hand, wants to turn it into a block grant to limit the federal government's liability.

Resolving the nation's thorny health care problem isn't likely to happen by January, experts said. But the two parties should at least commit themselves to tackling the issue in the coming year, said Joseph Minarik, director of research at the Committee for Economic Development.

"What we need is a credible agreement between Democrats and Republicans to address health care in 2013," Minarik said. But "this is not the best environment for doing complicated things."

First Published: November 21, 2012: 6:46 AM ET

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